Ji Darwish — software / ai
Essay № 01
Sovereignty

We Depend on US Infrastructure More Than We Think, That Needs to Change.

Published
04 / 26  ·  Utrecht
Reading time
7 min read
Topic
Sovereignty  /  Infra

Let’s kick off with something uncomfortable to admit, but nonetheless something that probably holds true for many companies out there. If Google suspended our account tomorrow, we would lose access to most of our operational infrastructure within the hour. Email, identity, file storage, third-party authentication, all of it tied to Google, a single US company operating under US law. We did not plan it this way. Nobody does, It accumulates.

We recognised this pattern recently and asked ourselves a simple question: if we needed to operate without Google, could we? The answer was uncomfortable. And that discomfort is what started this.

§ 01This is not just our story

Take a step back. This is not a story about one company’s tooling choices.

European companies have been building on top of US cloud infrastructure for years, accumulating dependencies that are only examined when we have to. The dependency is not always visible because it does not feel like a dependency. It feels like convenience. And convenience, compounded over time, becomes a constraint. The question worth asking as a European company, is not “should we leave the hyperscalers?” That is the wrong question. The right question is a different one:

If you had to operate without your current US dependencies, because of a regulatory change, a geopolitical event, a pricing decision, or simply because a better alternative emerged, could you do it? And how long would it take?

For most European companies whose identity infrastructure runs on Google Workspace or Microsoft Entra ID, the honest answer is: not within any reasonable timeframe, and the process will probably be disruptive. That is not a great position to be in from a company resilience perspective or a regulatory/compliance perspective.

§ 02Delving deeper in why this matters

Operational resilience

Let’s take a hypothetical scenario, what happens when Google has an outage? Authentication breaks, not just Gmail, but every tool that uses “Sign in with Google” simultaneously. Your team cannot reach the project management tool, the code repository, or the documentation platform. The blast radius of a single provider’s incident covers the entire surface of your operations.

What happens when Google changes its pricing? You pay it. Because the switching cost at that point is not a product migration, it is a complete re-architecture of your identity layer. Pricing leverage is a natural consequence of dependency. The deeper the integration, the less negotiating room you have.

This is not a prediction about Google specifically. It is a risk assessment test: small probability, huge impact.

The problem is the CLOUD Act. It gives US authorities the ability to compel access to data held by US companies, regardless of which country that data physically sits in, and in some cases, without necessarily notifying the subject of the request.

This creates a compliance contradiction for European companies. GDPR requires that personal data be protected from unauthorised access. The CLOUD Act creates a category of access that is authorised under US law and simultaneously unauthorised under GDPR. A US company operating under US law cannot make that contradiction disappear.

The identity layer makes this especially concrete. An employee directory contains names, email addresses, role assignments, and authentication credentials, among the most sensitive categories of personal data an organisation holds. When that data lives in Google’s infrastructure, it lives under US jurisdiction regardless of where the servers are physically located.

Economic sovereignty

Every euro spent on US hyperscaler services is a euro that leaves European technology economy. Multiplied across thousands of companies and billions in cloud spend, that is a sustained flow of capital to the same companies that are also competing with European businesses for investments, engineering talent, and increasingly for customers.

There is a compounding effect worth naming. The more European companies default to US controlled infrastructure, the less investment flows into European alternatives, which makes European alternatives less capable, which makes the default choice feel more justified. Read this blog by Bert Hubert, founder of PowerDNS, about how European leadership has been conditioned to believe that nothing other than US cloud is viable, while the engineers who ran perfectly capable European infrastructure have not gone anywhere. The capability exists. The default assumption is what needs to change.

Innovation lock-in

The smallest form of dependency is the one that shapes how we think. When identity infrastructure is Google native, engineers learn to build integrations against Google’s APIs. Onboarding scripts assume Google accounts. Access control decisions are expressed in terms of Google Groups. Tooling choices are filtered by what supports “Sign in with Google”. Over time, the architecture does more than just depending on Google, the architecture is completely built around Google’s data model. Migrating at that point is not a configuration change. It requires rethinking how identity is represented across the entire stack. This previous example can be applied to other critical dependencies such as AWS.

§ 03Why now?

The enforcement gap is closing

For years after invalidating the privacy shield in 2020, enforcement and regulatory coordination around EU–US data transfers were uneven in practice that many organisations made a uncounsious decision: the near-term risk seemed manageable, the cost of migration was high, so it’s a change that can wait.

But this logic has been getting harder to defend, GDPR is no longer the only framework that matters. A second wave of EU regulation has been stacking on top of it, each layer increasingly punishing weak control over dependencies, supply-chain risk, and cross-border data governance.

  • GDPR was the first layer.
  • EU AI Act — phasing in through 2027, increasing documentation, oversight, and compliance expectations for organisations that rely on external AI and cloud providers.
  • NIS2 raises the bar on cybersecurity and supply-chain governance, and in some sectors explicitly pushes organisations to take measures to limit vendor lock-in.
  • DORA goes further for financial services, making ICT third-party risk, concentration risk, and exit planning formal compliance issues.
  • Cyber Resilience Act adds security-by-design and lifecycle security obligations for connected products.
  • Data Act, which applies from September 2025, adds new data-access and data-sharing obligations for connected products and related services.

No single one of these laws makes it not permissable to use US cloud automatically for most companies. But together they make it much harder to treat third-country dependencies as a architectural choice instead of a governance, resilience, and audit problem. Waiting until a requirement is formally enforceable is how organisations end up in a compliance crisis.

The geopolitical risk

This risk is hard to quantify, but it is no longer dismissible. A few years ago, the idea that a US administration might take actions that affect the access of European companies to US technology services still felt ignorable. That is a harder assumption to defend today. Without making any specific predictions, the range of plausible scenarios has widened, and organisations without operational alternatives to their US dependencies have no real response available beyond waiting. The time to build an exit strategy is before you need it.

The alternatives are ready

Five years ago, building identity infrastructure outside Google or Microsoft required engineering investment and operational maturity that most small and medium-sized companies could not justify. That is no longer true.

Open-source identity platforms like zitadel, authentik and Keycloak have matured to the point where they are deployable by teams without dedicated IAM engineering. European hosting providers, Hetzner in Germany, OVHcloud and Scaleway in France offer infrastructure that is competitive in cost with US hyperscalers for the workloads most companies actually run. Many initiatives exist (e.g. The Gaia-X initiative) are producing certifiable standards for what sovereign cloud infrastructure means in practice.

§ 04What we are doing about it

For us, this means researching and beginning a phased migration away from Google as the identity backbone of our stack. Not a sudden cut. Not a rejection of all tools (even the ones that work). The objective is specific: we should be able to operate without our critical US dependencies within hours or days if we ever needed to. Because an organisation that cannot make that switch without a crisis has given that strategic decision to a vendor.

The goal is not purity. It is optionality. The ability to make a different choice if circumstances require it, and to know what that choice actually involves before you are forced to make it under pressure.